The federal budget surplus increased by 82% in January.

(Surplus? There’s a budget surplus? Who knew? Certainly not the media.)

Update: A criticism of the post is that by focusing on one month, I painted an inaccurate picture. The statistics were for the month of January. I generally assume people will follow the links for the full story. But just in case, the first link from MarketWatch indicates that tax receipts are generally higher in January due to individuals (like me) making estimated tax payments.

But MarketWatch also states: “For the first four months of the 2007 fiscal year, the deficit was $42.2 billion, about 57.2% lower than the $98.4 billion deficit in the same period in the previous fiscal year.” The trajectory of the falling deficit is impressive, potentially leading to a balanced budget by mid-2008.

My distrust of the establishment media’s reporting of the economy still stands. I would hope the media would be equally vigorous in reporting good economic news regardless of which party occupies the White House. And by many measures, the economy over the last few years has outperformed the economy of the mid-to-late 1990s. Unlike then, today’s boom is not based on the irrational exuberance of an Internet-driven stock market bubble. And unlike today, the 1990s economy was not saddled with the massive economic damage caused by the September 11th attacks.

Nevertheless, a surplus in a single month is not the same as a surplus for the fiscal year, and we’re not there yet. The fact that, in my view, the media represents the economy inaccurately is no excuse for my doing the same.