National Review asked a few luminaries for their Oscar predictions. In what might be a clerical error, I was included in this group. The overwhelming consensus is that Brokeback Mountain will win for Best Picture. Here’s my rationale for this prediction:

[A] number of Hollywood insiders see a vote for Brokeback as a vote against red-state America. Hollywood seems to view middle America as populated by homophobic bigots — especially those evil red-state Republicans — and after years of electoral disappointment at the ballot box, the Academy Awards are pretty much the only elections where the votes of the Hollywood elite still have any impact. So, they’ll cast their votes for Brokeback, thinking that it is the cultural equivalent of flipping the bird to middle America. And middle America, which Hollywood doesn’t seem to understand, will respond with a muffled yawn.

Other questions for the panelists included “In an ideal world, what would win for best movie?” and “How annoying is George Clooney?”

Post-Oscar Update: Well, my short-lived career as an Oscar prognosticator seems to be over: Crash wins the Academy Award for Best Picture.