Many commentators are saying that last night’s election results bode ill for the Republicans in 2006. But the two headline races—the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey—don’t seem like major defeats for the Republican party as a whole. In each case, a Democrat was elected to replace a Democrat, and even when you factor in Governor Schwarzenegger’s defeated ballot initiatives in California, what you’re left with is Democratic victories in places where Democrats have either been dominant for years or have been successful in recent elections. The one exception, of course, is New York City, where Mayor Mike Bloomberg won re-election in a landslide. This is no victory for Republicans, however; Bloomberg can barely be considered a Republican at all. He switched parties shortly before his first run for mayor, and likely did so only to avoid a bruising Democratic primary, which he would not likely have won in the first place.

So, while last night’s results don’t seem to send much of a signal one way or the other, Republicans in Congress should still be wary. Why? Because with the 2004 presidential election a distant memory, Republican voters no longer have to fear a Kerry presidency rehashing all the greatest hits of the Carter era. A Republican criticizing a Republican no longer has the effect of indirectly helping someone like John Kerry get the keys to the White House. So the supporters who have been relentlessly defending President Bush and the Republicans against the scurrilous smears of the Democrats and the anti-war left can now take stock of their own leaders. And many of them don’t like what they see.

Unfortunately, the structure of our government encourages each Congressman to go to the voters every two years with a laundry list of goodies brought back to the district courtesy of U.S. taxpayers everywhere. When I was growing up, House Speaker Tip O’Neill was the embodiment of the tax-and-spend Democrats. Every time you’d see his face on TV, you knew money was magically evaporating from your pocket. And day by day, his nose seemed to balloon with the size of the Federal government. Tip, you see, lived by the dictum that “all politics is local.” He knew how to buy votes by handing out goodies to his district, and he didn’t care what it did to the size of the budget or the rest of the country.

In 1994, the Republicans took over the House for the first time since the Eisenhower Administration. Faithful Republican voters were promised a class that would clean house. And they did, for a while, until they got comfortable in their jobs, propped up by the perks, and then all of a sudden various planks from the Contract With America went down the memory hole. (Does anyone remember term limits?) Over a decade after the Republicans took over, they seemed to have gotten as fat and lazy as the Democratic leadership they replaced. They’re now spending like drunken sailors in a fashion that would make Tip O’Neill proud (and maybe a little jealous). And on important issues like protecting our borders, the Republicans in Congress have followed President Bush’s lack-of-lead and taken no action. Millions of people stream across our borders illegally—providing a big gaping hole for not just immigrants seeking work, but terrorists seeking destruction—and Republicans turn the other way out of fear of alienating potential voters. With Republicans like that, who needs Democrats?

2006 may be a nasty year for the Republicans, and if it is, it won’t be because the Democrats are making gains with the public. It’ll be because many Republican voters see little point in supporting candidates who are indistinguishable from their opponents on such important issues. In these days of a hyper-polarized electorate, the importance of each party’s base becomes paramount. If Democrats emerge victorious in 2006, it’ll be because their base is energized while the Republican base is dispirited.

So even though last night’s results aren’t really the wake-up call that some commentators are claiming, perhaps Republican politicians should interpret it that way just the same. Because unless something changes between this November and next, I don’t think there are going to be very many Republican voters enthusiastic about pulling the lever for their party.